Preview: UFC Vegas 108 Prelims

Middleweights

Rodolfo Vieira (10-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. Tresean Gore (5-3, 2-3 UFC)

Odds: Vieira (-225); Gore (+185)

Two once-promising middleweights who have failed to launch thus far get another chance when “The Black Belt Hunter” meets “Mr. Vicious.” It isn’t as if Vieira has been a complete flop in the UFC—he is well over .500 and has beaten a couple of decent foes—but he appears to have topped out. One of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners ever to cross over to MMA in his athletic prime, Vieira has lived up to that billing but otherwise largely failed to develop.

Vieira’s MMA grappling is deadly, especially from top position, and his fortunes have hinged on his ability to bring those skills to bear. Despite his imposing physique, Vieira is a merely adequate offensive wrestler. His takedowns often depend on horsepower rather than technique, which tends to drain his already iffy gas tank, and while his strikes are powerful, his footwork and defense remain poor. A month short of his 36th birthday, it’s doubtful those things will change much from here on out.

That makes the game plan for beating Vieira depressingly straightforward: Stay on your feet, at least until he gets tired, and punch him in the head if you can. The three opponents who have beaten him so far have followed different routes to get there. Anthony Hernandez took the hard way, gutting out a hard first round on the ground before taking over when Vieira gassed out horribly. Chris Curtis boxed him up, pitching a near shutout of Vieira’s takedown attempts and making him look clumsy and aimless on the feet, while Andre Petroski met him head on, refusing to be pushed around in close quarters and hitting him with superior volume and power.

The paths to beating Vieira may be public knowledge, but whether Gore can follow any of them remains an open question. The “TUF 29” standout had arguably the most upside of any cast member that season, but a combination of inactivity and mediocre performances have left him far behind former housemates like Petroski and Bryan Battle. At his best, Gore is a fast-twitch kickboxer with good power, especially in his kicks, and a solid front headlock that has accounted for both of his UFC wins so far.

Gore’s takedown defense has been an issue in the past, and it will be tested here. He might have the speed to try a Curtis-like performance, but it seems unlikely given that Curtis has better lateral movement and Gore’s offense is more dependent on kicking. Gore’s tendency to react to takedowns with a guillotine attempt has borne fruit for him so far but would be extremely ill-advised on Saturday.

The likeliest scenario features Vieira barreling forward, grounding Gore with a power double-leg in space or a trip against the fence, and slapping on his trademark arm-triangle choke, probably in the first three or four minutes. If this fight goes past Round 1, it might get really interesting, and there’s the possibility we see Gore head-kicking an exhausted Vieira into next week, but we probably won’t get there. The pick is Vieira by first-round submission.



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