Opinion: Who’s Up Next at Middleweight?

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship middleweight division is currently a maelstrom of activity. Fresh off an event in which the main and co-main events were contests at 185 pounds, this weekend sees Dricus Du Plessis defend his belt against Sean Strickland at UFC 312. The following week may be an Apex card, but even that is being headlined by middleweights. If we want to stretch things even further, the March 15 Fight Night is scheduled to be headlined by middleweight combatants Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. Maybe that doesn’t sound like that big of a deal, but when there are 11 active divisions, it’s an extremely quick turnaround to have the same weight class headlining another card just a month after three consecutive main events.

While we’re going to have a much clearer picture of middleweight as a whole by the middle of March, we’re going to have all the necessary information at the tip-top of the division at the conclusion of UFC 312 to figure out who has the next shot at the belt. We’ll know who holds the title by then and barring a razor-close instant classic that requires an immediate rematch, we know who Dana White and the UFC’s matchmakers will choose from for the next No. 1 contender.

White doesn’t have an easy choice between Khamzat Chimaev and Nassourdine Imavov. On merit, there’s no doubt Imavov is the superior option. His wins in the middleweight division are more numerous and more impactful than Chimaev’s. Officially, Khamzat only has wins over Kamaru Usman and Robert Whittaker at middleweight. While both are former champions, Usman took the fight on short notice and has exactly zero wins at 185 pounds in his UFC career, while Whittaker last held the belt over five years ago.

Imavov has been stellar in the two years since his loss to Strickland. He doesn’t have an official win over Chris Curtis, but most look at the no contest as a win given how Imavov was having his way with Curtis. He followed that up with a beatdown of the year candidate on Roman Dolidze, became the first to finish the middleweight version of Jared Cannonier, and snapped Brendan Allen’s seven-fight win streak heading into his contest last weekend with Israel Adesanya. Adesanya appears to have lost a step from when he was in the midst of his dominant reign atop the division, but it was less than 18 months ago that he was the kingpin of the division—and Imavov finished him quicker than anyone else has.

Beyond all that, Imavov has consistently stepped into the cage, proving he can fight regularly, something the UFC desires out of its champions. As for Chimaev, it’s a bit ironic he has become a once-a-year fighter given he owns the record for the shortest successful turnaround in the modern UFC era. In the last four years, Chimaev has fought more than once within a calendar year just once, in 2022. On paper, there’s no doubt Imavov is the superior candidate.

However, we all know these decisions aren’t made strictly by what is on paper, nor should they be. The UFC is a business first and a sports organization second. Thus, while its matchmakers don’t completely disregard who is deserving, the UFC will pay very close attention to who will bring more eyeballs. There’s no doubt Chimaev is the one who does that.

Chimaev has benefited from one of the most astounding beginnings to a UFC career. His first two UFC fights came 10 days apart in two different divisions, the latter of them at the lower weight class, shredding the competition like tissue paper. He continued to be largely dominant and has also done so with an attitude, confidence, and swagger that have captured the public’s imagination better than anyone since Conor McGregor’s heyday. Chimaev stated he was going to smash his opponents and did just that. Remember him literally carrying Jingliang Li across the cage? I can’t recall anyone else doing anything remotely similar to that. He has done things we’ve literally never seen in the UFC.

Chimaev has looked human in some of his contests, but he’s also managed to stay unbeaten. Even more telling, while there’s a question of whether Whittaker is still capable of winning the middleweight title, Chimaev manhandled the former champion in a manner no one else has been able to do, literally crushing in Whittaker’s teeth on his lower jaw. In other words, while he loses momentum due to his inactivity, he tends to remind us who he is when he does show up. While Imavov has certainly accomplished enough to warrant a title shot— probably accomplishing more than most who have managed to secure title shots since the introduction of the division— he hasn’t been able to capture the imagination of viewers in the same manner as Chimaev.

Whichever of the two isn’t fortunate to get the call from the UFC should have his next opponent already mapped out for him. Caio Borralho has managed to win his first seven UFC contests with ease. It hasn’t always been done in exciting fashion, but he’s looking like the real deal. If the UFC is smart, the next challenger will fight the champion while the odd man out fights Borralho on the same card. Perhaps they could get away with having the Borralho contest a week or two afterward but it’s an appropriate safeguard that would leave fans happy should one of the two combatants for the title fall out for any reason.

The UFC has a difficult decision on its hands, but it’s a good problem to have. If I were to choose, I’d go with Imavov as I don’t have the confidence Chimaev can show up consistently enough. If the UFC were to follow my directive and book Chimaev and Borralho on the same card, it’s easy for Chimaev to claim that whoever is champion is afraid of him, building up the anticipation. But does the UFC want to risk passing up on the opportunity to slide Chimaev into a title fight while the opportunity is there? I don’t believe so. Regardless of what they do, I don’t believe there is a wrong decision, even if it isn’t the one I would necessarily make. Regardless, it’s hard for me to remember the last time I was so full of anticipation for the division.