Prime Picks: UFC 319 ‘Du Plessis vs. Chimaev’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship gives the fans what they want: a bonkers title tilt inside of a large arena that will be jam-packed full of screaming faces on Saturday in Chicago. If the pay-per-view era is to be put to pasture, the beginning-of-the-end event, UFC 319, is as good a place to start as any. We cannot avoid diving into how the main event may play out while also giving it up for a Prime Picks mainstay looking for one more big upset score.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Dricus Du Plessis (+205)

Based on the lineup scheduled out into November at this point, the UFC 319 middleweight championship headliner between Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev may be the biggest fight left on the docket this year. It is a thrilling clash of styles, shades of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Unlike that logical paradox, one of the two will likely have to give at night’s end, be it Chimaev’s onslaught of aggression or Du Plessis’ unbreakable spirit and the ability to drag championship-level foes into deep waters to drown them. At these odds—they may further shift in the challenger’s favor as more money from casuals and celebrities rolls in—either a Chimaev finish (-145) or our play of the Du Plessis upset makes most sense.

Any doubt in the mind of “Borz” fans fell by the wayside when he crushed Robert Whittaker’s jaw with one of the most brutal face cranks this side of the Mason-Dixon line. When Chimaev sets up his submissions and starts squeezing, there is little opponents have been able to do at that point besides surrender or go out. The sheer vice-grip power of Chimaev—who was recently lifting an out-of-camp Daniel Cormier up in the air and spinning him around like a small child—is insurmountable. Du Plessis will simply have to avoid that precarious position and not stand still while getting his face punched. Chimaev may know one speed, but there is no doubt that he has not excelled in the few third rounds he has entered. It is possible he trained double-plus hard for this excursion, but Du Plessis has shown he can survive an early barrage and keep on going.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+310)

When “GM3” is on the card, is there any better underdog play than his getting a stoppage? This middleweight excursion with Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the two-outcome variety: Either Meerschaert gets punched out in the first round or he rallies to perform a submission in the second or third stanzas. The Wisconsin native does not play to win rounds, and all of his victories in the Octagon to date have been by stoppage. While he has dropped two in a row, he notched a pair of subs in 2024 over dangerous yet less risky names than the likes of Reinier de Ridder. The 37-year-old getting stoppage win No. 36 at this line is choice.

Oleksiejczuk’s resume is littered with first-round knockouts and somewhat surprising submission defeats. When Kevin Holland got dropped and wrapped that armbar up to snap it, the former Polish light heavyweight looked like a fish out of water trying to defend the maneuver. Meerschaert may be slowing, but he can still pull a submission out in the blink of an eye. If he takes some damage and tackles “Hussar” to the floor, he could be a few moves away from establishing a consciousness-depriving arm-triangle choke. Give up the back, and “GM3” will take home your neck. Against an opponent with obvious and recent submission defense deficiencies, the underdog can weather the early storm and get it done.