Preview: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

Men’s Bantamweights

Steve Erceg (12-4, 3-3 UFC) vs. Ode Osbourne (13-8, 1 NC; 5-6 UFC)

Odds: Erceg (-400); Osbourne (+300)
The snakebitten flyweight co-main event of UFC Vegas 109 ends up here as a bantamweight scrap that might as well be an exhibition bout in terms of its divisional relevance, but at least gets two fighters paid and promises to be a hell of a fun time.

Erceg surprised many upon arriving in the UFC by quickly winning three fights in dominant fashion, netting a short-notice title shot against Alexandre Pantoja in just his fourth Octagon appearance. Surprise gave way to shock when he took the champ to the wire in an instant classic that was competitive enough that a few professional observers actually scored the fight for Erceg.

Since then, “Astro Boy” has dropped his next two fights to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno, but considering the gap in talent between his first three UFC opponents and his last three, it is an open question whether Erceg’s early run was a fluke, he has regressed, or he simply is what he is: better than David Dvorak and Matt Schnell; worse than Pantoja, Kara-France and Moreno, which would make him probably the sixth or seventh best flyweight in the world. The UFC’s intention to match him here with Alex Perez and then, briefly Hyun Sung Park, indicates that the matchmakers are probably thinking along the same lines.

Despite his lanky, not obviously powerful build and a slightly geeky demeanor—I’ve compared him before to a flyweight Kenny Florian—Erceg is a good athlete, fluid and powerful. He throws hard, straight punches that make good use of his long reach and natural power, and mixes in good kicks to the legs and body.

Erceg seemed like a ground specialist early in his career in Australia, but as his standup technique and confidence have grown, he has become more of a complete fighter, to the point that these days he seems to prefer beating his opponents up on the feet until they either fall down or try and take him down.

Osbourne remains a frustrating blend of potent offensive tools and glaring defensive liabilities. At least as big as Erceg—it wouldn’t be that surprising if he decided to remain at 135 pounds after this one-off tilt—Osbourne is a nimble kickboxer with fast hands and feet, capable of sniping with power out of either stance. His wrestling and grappling are more opportunistic than overwhelming, but he is able to punish opponents for moments of inattention or heedless takedown attempts.

Unfortunately, inattention and heedlessness are a big part of why Osbourne is under .500 in the UFC right now. Put simply, he has the tools to put away any flyweight on the roster, but any flyweight with top-shelf weapons tends to put him away first. A glance at his six UFC losses tells the tale: The grapplers outgrapple him and the big hitters hit him big. Osbourne’s defensive lapses on the feet have gotten him crushed by Tyson Nam and Manel Kape, while his aggressive scrambling style on the ground has seen him get caught by the likes of Jafel Filho and Asu Almabayev.

Osbourne’s kryptonite appears to be “anyone who knows what he’s good at and can craft a game plan to use it,” which spells bad news against Erceg. This may not be an instant blitzing, since Erceg is not a hitter on the level of a Kape, nor as diligent a wrestler and top-position grinder as Almabayev, but expect Erceg to be in the driver’s seat the whole time. Things will start to get lopsided quickly as Erceg takes ground, keeps Osbourne on his heels and punishes him on the feet. The pick is Erceg by second-round submission, but a Round 2 TKO on the ground would not be out of the question either.



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Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Erceg vs. Osbourne
Lucindo vs. Hill
Fili vs. Rodriguez
Johns vs. Matsumoto
Anders vs. Duncan
The Prelims