Preview: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

Featherweights

Andre Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC) vs. Christian Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC)

Odds: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)
Fili and Rodriguez meet here in a clash of a veteran and a prospect who are both younger than it seems they should be. Fili has been in the UFC for over a dozen years at this point and has settled into a bizarre pattern: Aside from a couple of two-fight win streaks early in his Octagon run, and a no contest against Daniel Pineda four years ago, he has essentially alternated wins and losses for his entire tenure.

Part of that consistent inconsistency is down to matchmaking, but much of it is Fili himself. He owns good physical tools—he is tall and rangy even by the modern standard of the division—and works well as a high-volume striker. While his offensive wrestling is the most inconsistent part of his game, swinging from underrated to overrated to completely forgotten based on whether he feels like using it, his defensive wrestling has always been a liability. He is a capable grappler, but in recent years better ground fighters have been able to dominate him.

Fili may be in decline at this point; he is an old 35 and has taken a lot of punishment over the years. His recent losses have seen him knocked down or out by punches he might have shrugged off six or seven years ago, from the likes of Dan Ige and Joanderson Brito. Since Fili’s style often sees him get into brawls against harder hitters than himself, his fortunes are likely to follow his chin.

Rodriguez would surely like to test that chin, but he will get to it when he gets to it; he is nothing if not methodical. “CeeRod” has carved out such a niche for himself as the UFC’s prospect killer—handing Raul Rosas Jr., Isaac Dulgarian and Austin Bashi each their first career loss is an incredible feat—that it nearly overshadows what a solid young talent he is in his own right.

The 27-year-old Roufusport standout has made a smooth transition from bantamweight to featherweight, where he looks a bit undersized, but neither of his losses in his new division can be blamed solely on size. Rodriguez is an athletic, smart and well-rounded fighter who is at his best working a disciplined sprawl-and-brawl game. Of the three super-prospects Rodriguez winged in recent years, all three were big, athletic fighters whose best chance at victory involved bringing the fight to the ground. In all three cases, he fought near-perfect fights, using footwork, his jab and cross to keep distance, crushing their legs with some of the better low kicks in the division, and building as the fights went along. More than just beaten, all of them looked damned frustrated by the end.

Fili represents a completely different challenge to brawny wrestle-boxers like Dulgarian and Bashi, or for that matter the explosive quick-strike offense of Melquizael Costa and Julian Erosa, the two men to beat Rodriguez at featherweight. This could be a fight that simmers, smolders, but never quite bursts into a full-fledged barnburner. Rodriguez is simply too measured and relentless in his approach, and Fili is likely to be punished for any efforts to make it into a fun messy brawl. The pick here is Rodriguez to win a unanimous decision, probably by sweeping all three rounds.



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Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Erceg vs. Osbourne
Lucindo vs. Hill
Fili vs. Rodriguez
Johns vs. Matsumoto
Anders vs. Duncan
The Prelims