Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

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A week after one of the roughest-looking Ultimate Fighting Championship cards on paper, the promotion may have even lowered the level even further. UFC Vegas 109 or UFC on ESPN 72 may be historic for all the wrong reasons: Of the 12 matchups on the billing, only two contain betting favorites closer than -200. Buckle up, buckaroos, because this edition of Prime Picks needs to get especially creative given how zany most of the moneylines are at this point.

PARLAYING & PRAYING

Anthony Hernandez (-300)

Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill Goes the Distance (-525)

Uros Medic Wins Inside Distance (-300)

Total Odds: +112

Starting off Prime Picks with a parlay because the other main card options did not seem palatable is a bold move on our behalf. For the slightest peeks behind the curtain, we tend to avoid favored athletes with lines above -200 outright. We also enjoy walks on the wild side with big underdogs with clear paths to victory—see Gerald Meerschaert, Charles Oliveira or occasionally Julija Stoliarenko. We have a bit of both on this sheet, so we tuck together a pair of heavy favorites to add up and multiply our takeaway. As for Hernandez, not only does he have better five-round experience than Roman Dolidze, but he has already shown he has the firepower and cardio reserves to put away someone who is fading. If Hernandez does not get his jaw jacked by the Georgian in the early going, he can cruise as Dolidze runs out of steam.

It’s a numbers game for women’s mixed martial artists, one in which pointing out certain stats is by no means showing disrespect to the gladiators over the years. The finish rate of ladies in the Octagon is critically low in 2025, hovering a little above 35%—and way off the overall average of about 52% across the organization. Various users on social media track the overs for women’s bouts, and they hit disproportionately more often than not. That tracks for Hill, who not only is tied with Tecia Pennington for the most decision wins in UFC women’s strawweight history (nine) but has heard the final bell in 20 of her past 24 outings. Meanwhile, Lucindo has gone the distance in five of her six UFC matches.

As for the final combatant in this three-legged race, Medic is heartily expected to punish Gilbert Urbina. Shifting from him as an odds-on favorite of -400 down to him getting the stoppage did not change the line much, which is fair given that “The Doctor” has seen 10 patients and finished them all. To boot, his three losses are also by stoppage, but that will not help in this excursion. In three walks to the UFC cage in the last four years, Urbina has been punched out and throttled with a rear-naked choke, showing he is an equal opportunity get-finished-er. The former Anchorage BJJ fighter should be able to pick his poison and make his friends and ex-teammates in the most populous Alaskan city quite thrilled—nearly as happy as those betting on him to start off this accumulator.

Christian Rodriguez Wins in Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)

With eight years separating them, Rodriguez and Andre Fili are at drastically different ages in their careers. While “CeeRod” has capped out beneath names like Julian Erosa and Jonathan Pearce, Fili has yet to amass a winning streak since 2019. The pattern of Fili alternating wins and losses goes back seven outings, and following that alone, he should prevail this weekend and spoil the party. Some of the stats line up well between the two even if the sample size is not equivalent, like the two differing by 1% for takedown defense or measuring a bit over 3.5 strikes landed per minute. Where they do not is where Rodriguez can take advantage: Fili throws often, regardless of whether he plans on connecting.

That medium-high volume is where “Touchy” resides, intent on touching rather than swinging, pecking away with jabs that set up the occasional overhand right. Power tends to be a lower priority for the Team Alpha Male staple, even with over 40% of his wins coming via strikes. The danger? Fili is and has always been hittable, absorbing more blows than he puts out there. Do that against a more accurate puncher like Rodriguez who chains those fists into knees and elbows, and he could find himself in trouble. The last four wins for “CeeRod” all came at the end of full-length matches, so coupling the over to him prevailing lowers the betting line from -240 to something much more palatable.

Julija Stoliarenko Wins Inside Distance (+550)

This may be one of the more off-the-wall options, given that Stoliarenko currently resides as a +325 underdog and ranges upwards of +350 on some books. For her to prevail alone would be a mighty upset, but factor in her landing the first submission—or first stoppage loss due to strikes—on Gabrielle Fernandes and the plus-money option nearly doubles. It has obvious factors working against it, namely that Fernandes has never been finished as a professional. The Lithuanian has notched 10 of her 11 pro wins by submission, so some may target a straight-up submission play at +600. Reducing a little of the value to cover the unlikely doctor stoppage, injury or if Stoliarenko manages to get mount and slugs away, makes a trifle more sense.

When already taking a giant risk of a fighter who is largely expected to lose and not look great when doing so, any light hedging can be a welcome sight. Rather than put a little on Fernandes pounding out the 32-year-old from Kaunas, we scale back to allow for the TKO/KO/DQ option. “Gabi” comes out as a well-rounded athlete but does not particularly shine in one category. Thus far, Fernandes has absorbed more strikes than she has landed, cannot even get off one of every five takedowns and has a wingspan at 125 pounds that does not give her any advantage here. It would be in the Brazilian’s best interest to avoid all ground interactions and remove the possibility of Stoliarenko trying to either pull guard or roll for an unorthodox maneuver. Treat the floor like lava, and this line will bust. For every minute she plays in the guard of her opponent, however, Stoliarenko is a live ’dog.

Cody Brundage (-170)

Yeah, it has gotten so bad that one of our four primary pick options comes from a fight that came together a few days ago and up a division from where the two competitors typically lay claim. When it is all said and done, Brundage may end up with the most bizarre record of any UFC fighter, although Kevin Casey had an extremely funky stretch from 2014 to 2017. What does Brundage, the leanest betting favorite on the entire billing, have going for him that opponent Eric McConico does not? He can say he has earned wins inside the Octagon, like when he punched out Julian Marquez or body slammed Zachary Reese darn near through the cage floor. McConico, who had absolutely nothing to offer Nursulton Ruziboev, likely has one last chance to prove himself.

Based on his previous UFC performance—he gets few to no points for beating roughly .500 fighters Jarome Hatch and Kevem Felipe in recent outings, as well as castout Maki Pitolo—there is not a great deal that can be said about McConico performing on a major stage. The awkward, gangly frame of Ruziboev hampered him to the point that McConico only landed six total strikes in a little under six minutes of action. Brundage may not have the frame to replicate the success, but he does have the grappling chops to take McConico’s hands and legs out of the equation. Brundage has displayed the horsepower to put a fighter out in the UFC, while the MMA Lab product will need to throw a punch with the intent to harm in order for us to say the same about him. It might not be the most glamourous of picks, but Brundage should have what it takes to grind or drum out his foe.