Preview: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

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Will the next middleweight title contender please stand up?

The last of a three-week home stand for the Ultimate Fighting Championship before really racking up the frequent flyer miles—the promotion will visit four continents in the next five weeks—UFC Vegas 109, like its two immediate predecessors, has a certain “clean out the fridge before vacation” vibe. Nowhere is that more evident than in the undercard matchup between Cody Brundage and Eric McConico, two habitual middleweights who were booked to fight one another on a week’s notice…at light heavyweight.

Having said that, UFC Vegas 109 has not only the mix of prospects and action fights that make for a fun Apex card, but also the immediate divisional stakes that make them feel worthwhile. With Roman Dolidze staking his three-fight win streak against Anthony Hernandez’s seven straight, the headliner is primed to provide a serious contender in a middleweight division that could use a fresh face. And while the scheduled flyweight tilt between Steve Erceg and Alex Perez would have elevated this card to one of the more important Fight Nights of the year, the replacement bout between Erceg and Ode Osbourne at least promises excitement.

Let’s get on to the preview for the six-fight main card of UFC Vegas 109, also known as UFC on ESPN 72:

Middleweights

Roman Dolidze (15-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. Anthony Hernandez (14-2, 1 NC; 8-2 UFC)

Odds: Hernandez (-350); Dolidze (+280)
Dolidze has come seemingly from nowhere to become a consistent Top 10 fighter and multiple time Fight Night headliner, now with a second chance to elevate himself into the title picture. Joining the UFC in mid-2020, the “Caucasian” seemed like a leftfield signing even by the standards of the Covid era: an undefeated but unheralded 32-year-old Georgian who hadn’t fought in two and a half years, whose main claim to fame was having qualified for ADCC a few years before.

Dolidze went on to defy expectations by winning his first two fights in the Octagon, then defied them even further by dropping from light heavyweight to middleweight, unprompted. Given his age and jacked-to-the-sky physique, it seemed a bizarre choice, even more so when he immediately lost his first fight in his new weight class to the talented but inconsistent Trevin Giles. Dolidze looked destined, if not to wash out of the UFC, at least to settle in as an entertaining “win two, lose one” card filler for the next few years.

That is when things started to click, however, and Dolidze has won seven of nine bouts since then including his last three in a row, cementing himself as a perennial contender even as he eclipsed his 37th birthday last month. Even the manner of his success has been somewhat unexpected: Dolidze has visibly reshaped his physique into a configuration that is still imposing, yet better suited to 185 pounds. While he maintains the powerful wrestling and top-position grappling that has always characterized his game—his finish of Jack Hermansson is something that simply does not happen to fighters like Hermansson, usually—he has also become a basic, but technically diligent striker who uses his natural power to good advantage.

Perhaps most surprisingly, despite his musculature and his approach to fighting, which is heavy on power wrestling and power punching, Dolidze has shown perfectly adequate cardio for three- and even five-round fights. This will be his third UFC headliner, and while he went 1-1 in the first two, fatigue was not a main deciding factor in either.

Of course, there is perfectly adequate cardio—and there is Anthony Hernandez cardio. Much like Dolidze, “Fluffy” entered the UFC to modest expectations, only to shock many observers by winning and winning some more. After having his Dana White's Contender Series win overturned due to a positive test for cannabis, then losing two of his first three UFC bouts, he appeared to be the next in an endless line of LFA middleweight champs to grace the Octagon for three or four fights before sinking back into the regionals.

Only that didn’t happen. Since getting blitzed in 39 seconds by Kevin Holland five years ago, Hernandez has reeled off seven wins in a row, the longest such streak in the division outside of champ Dricus Du Plessis. It’s been an impressive run; starting with his shocking upset of Rodolfo Vieira, the streak includes five finishes, a “Beatdown of the Year” mauling of Michel Pereira in his first UFC headliner, and in his last cage appearance in February, a definitive repeat of his LFA title win over Brendan Allen.

Like Dolidze, Hernandez is deceptive in appearance, but where the Georgian’s massive frame belies his agility and durability, Hernandez looks unassuming but is surprisingly strong and athletic. Hernandez is a technically solid, high-volume kickboxer, a very good wrestler and outstanding grappler. What has traditionally made his game go, however, is his pace. Witness the Vieira fight, where Hernandez calmly took everything “The Black Belt Hunter” could throw at him on the ground in the first round, letting the massive Brazilian wear himself out, then just torched him in Round 2, culminating in a submission win over one of the most decorated grapplers ever to cross over to MMA.

If that were all Hernandez had to offer, if he were simply a 185-pound version of the “ultimate builder” archetype shared by such UFC champions and recent champs as Merab Dvalishvili and Belal Muhammad, he would be a force to reckon with, but he refuses to be pigeonholed. In the Pereira fight, his first five-rounder in the UFC, conventional wisdom held that he would be well served to weather the explosive “Demolidor” for a while, then take over late. Instead, he fought against type, coming out aggressively and kicking the Brazilian’s ass from pillar to post. It was a reminder that a strong finish does not have to be synonymous with a slow start.

This matchup is sensational, and the wide betting line might be underselling the threat Dolidze poses. If he was able to pound out as good a wrestler and as savvy a grappler as Hermansson from back mount with a modified calf slicer, he can do it to Hernandez, and all the pace and cardio in the world won’t help if he lands two or three good overhand rights in Round 1.

However, all the variables do seem to point in the Californian’s favor. At 37, while Dolidze shows no signs of slowing down, the moment could come at any time, while the 31-year-old Hernandez is just coming into his prime. While Dolidze’s durability has been better than advertised and Hernandez has been more of a fast starter in recent fights, reducing the tortoise-versus-hare dynamic a bit, the five-round format does favor Hernandez. The pick here is that we get two incredible rounds in which these contenders throw the kitchen sink at each other, two epic rounds as Hernandez turns it up and Dolidze begins to flag, and a submission win for “Fluffy” in the final frame.



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Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Erceg vs. Osbourne
Lucindo vs. Hill
Fili vs. Rodriguez
Johns vs. Matsumoto
Anders vs. Duncan
The Prelims